How Ya Doin Sirius

The economy is slowing improving, some car dealers are finally showing a little profit, and Sirius is still around. In fact, thanks to John Malone's financial support, Sirius remains an independent company. Despite posting a net loss in the third quarter, revenue grew 3 percent for them. Not bad for a company who's stock trades for just over 2 bits.

So what does the future hold? Hopefully a company that has reined in its costs and grown revenue. One big expense still around is Howard Stern's hefty contract. But that contract ends next month and both Howard and Sirius have a decision to make. Re-sign Howard or let him go back to terrestrial radio. Does Sirius depend on Howard anymore; I dunno. I suspect that those that ordered Sirius because of Howard have found more value that would keep them customers. Howard doesn't seem to be the game changer he once was. My expectation is that Mel Karmazin will try to sign him for pennies and when Howard refuses will say that at least he made him an offer. At the end of the day, Howard will come back to terrestrial radio and the wrath of the FCC.

And for Sirius, lower costs, perhaps more non car subscribers via iPhone and other mobile devices, and a buyout by Liberty Media and Direct TV.

Cable Revenue Up, Basic Sub Growth Down

Cablevision recently announced third quarter results and the headline was that profits had tripled. In fact, revenue jumped 5.3%. Comcast is telling a similar story as their revenue rose 3 percent. The growth sectors are digital penetration, high speed connects, and triple play growth with wireline phone business.

But inside the numbers there may be a different story to tell. Digital cable growth, in my estimation, is due to the recapture of bandwidth as cable customers "force" consumers to upgrade to digital and take a digital box in order to watch networks that were once on the basic tier. Revenue growth is coming from these upsells as well as the profit margin attached to phone and broadband connects.

BUT, the troubling point for cable is in this one piece of information. For Cablevision, basic video subscribers fell 1.5% from a year earlier. For Comcast, a similar story; in the third quarter, they lost 132,000 basic cable subscribers. At some point, you can't keep selling more services to less customers!! As consumers begin to treat cable, high speed, and phone as a commodity and see little differentiation between competitors, the lower priced service will win. Fios and AT&T continue to gain basic subs as cable drops them. As cable basic sub loss grows, these triple play customers will also leave and revenue and profit will both decline.

And when will it get problematic; just wait till the next rate increase comes into customers' hands. That notice will be the impetus to compare rates and think about changing providers. Revenue growth may be growing now but don't lose sight of your basic cable base. You got to have them as customers first before you can upsell them!

VOD or Live TV On Your Cell Phone

While it is nice to read that Apple is taking its iTune application one step further, enabling an all you can watch mentality for a subscription price. And for those consuming lots of on demand content on their iPhones and iPods, it may be a more economical model. "iTunes users can already buy individual movies and episodes of shows, but the monthly subscription-fee strategy takes square aim at cable companies, because subscribers wouldn't need them to deliver their favorite programs in bulk." Frankly, I don't see this as much of a competitive threat. I don't see these mobile devices as replacement to televisions.

What does appeal to me is the ability to augment your cable viewing experience with mobile. I recently found myself on a Sunday afternoon away from watching NFL football at home; instead, I was watching my son's little league game. Next to me at the field, a friend had his blackberry on, watching a live feed of the Giant-Eagles game. I immediately wished I had the same service. Direct TV offers this mobile connection; slingbox does as well. Does cable have anything to fear from iTunes - no; but they do need to bring their TV Everywhere concept into the 21st century and use a slingbox like approach to bring your cable subscription to your other platforms. The distributor that does the better job of enabling and marketing that application will see their market share rise.

Comcast to Buy Cable Nets and Sell Rest of NBC?

Everything that NBC Universal has built up, the acquisition of USA and Sci Fi, then Bravo, Oxygen, and most recently The Weather Channel, could soon come apart. With a sale to Comcast, the only thing of value to Comcast are the cable nets, less so the broadcast network and its owned and operated stations. "One Wall Street player confirmed market rumors that bankers have already descended on the MSO's Philadelphia headquarters to work with management on selling the NBC Network and stations to a third party. Comcast had no immediate comment on that still-hypothetical possibility."

Is this what GE wants, will this provide Vivendi with the value they want for their investment? It seems Comcast knows exactly what they want and are not afraid to dismantle the infrastructure to get to their prize. It is a far more strategic plan than acquiring the whole thing. Will Universal and the theme parks go as well? I would expect so.

So who might want a broadcast network without cable networks to balance it out. Today the profit is in cable not broadcast. And with the current programming on NBC in prime time (i.e. The Jay Leno Show), this fourth placed network has less value to offer. Who would want this dog without and an affiliate network that has become less viable when the web can be much more hyper local. Is this the future for NBC Universal and who could possible want to buy this shell of an asset?

Tonight on TV

Cable networks were created to bring niche interests to the masses and compete with the general programming of broadcasters. But the cable landscape has changed and cable networks are no longer acting like niches but behaving like broadcast networks. Case in point, tonight's line-up:

A&E - should be called CBS 2 with reruns of Criminal Mind and CSI: Miami
TV Land - once the home of classic TV shows is featuring a movie, "Private Benjamin"
Bravo - once culture TV presents Americas Next Top Model and a movie "Sleepless in Seattle" - that's culture?!
MTV - so long music videos, we get "Scream 3"
Travel - ahhh travel. So where to tonight - "Ghost Adventures Live!" Ticket for one, please.

And so it goes. Cable networks continue to broaden their programming so that they begin to lose their individual identity. Was that show on Food Network or TLC, AMC or TNT? So hard to say, they all start looking alike. So goodbye to networks, with VOD, simply watch the show you enjoy, regardless of where it may have first appeared.

Cablevision To Raise 2010 Video Rates 3.7%

How do you protect yourself from competition, sometimes its by keeping prices steady, perhaps even lowering them. That is somewhat the case for Cablevision. While voice and data rates remain steady, cable subscription is rising. Initially, I would have thought that this move was wrong, especially when cable basic subscription falls. But when your competition also raises rates then the one who raises it the least may be the winner. "The increase is slightly higher than 2009, when video rates rose an average of 3.5%. But it is substantially below the 21% increase Cablevision rival Verizon Communications implemented for its legacy FiOS TV Premier Package earlier this month."

Ultimately, the consumer, faced with either price increase will look at the other choices and ask, which is cheaper. To them, cable, voice, and data has begun to look more like a commodity than a differentiated product. What differentiates one from the other on the cable side is minimal, one has HD channels of local sports (obviously because Cablevision owns those channels and has not agreed to license them to Verizon). The other just picked up Epix. For the most part, for the majority of consumers, each has enough networks to satisfy. Each delivers data at broadband speed. Each offers wireline telephone service. How they service their current customer and how they woo their competitors customers may make the difference. In the meantime, price will continue to be the motivating factor. Regardless of how much they increase their price, it is the one that offers the lowest total cost for the package that will see the bigger rise of subscribers. In essence, cable TV has become a commodity product and the companies have done little to nothing to change that impression.

Quincy Smith Leaving CBS Interactive - What Does It Really Mean

Quincy Smith, CBS Interactive CEO, is leaving after 3 years at the helm to head back to Silicon Valley and his own startup. And while the claim is that he will continue to consult for CBS, the question is why now when the job he started has not been completed. TV.com, his alternative to Hulu, seems to be a non-product to its competitor and has little if any consumer awareness. The CNET acquisition has yet to thrive and their acquisition of a little website called Wallstrip merely resulted in its being shut down. So what grade does Quincy Smith get for his leadership? And why will he still be on retainer?

As Comcast and others discuss TV Everywhere, where does CBS stand. CBS seems to have created product and tactics without strategy and don't seem to know the direction they are headed. When asked in a recent interview, Smith replied, "Yeah, and I think there is a lot more I can do outside of CBS on that particular issue than inside. CBS has clearly got the Kool-aid of it inside. We have always been adamant about saying yes. Streaming stuff for fans online is the right thing to do, but the question is, What is the business model to make it work?" Ahhh, more questions than answers. Really, being outside CBS will help him focus on CBS. Got it. Right.

Is CBS also dissatisfied with Quincy Smith's performance and is this a nice way to get him out of the way. We will know when we see what kind of interaction this new company will have with CBS and how long it lasts. My vote, 3 to 6 months. It is a nice way to say goodbye.

Will Consumers Pay for Online Content

Hulu wants to charge for online content. Will consumers pay? They pay for Netflix, they pay for Blockbuster, but will they pay a site that has been previously offering its content for free? I expect that consumers will simply get more annoyed at thesecompanies and will utlimately find a way around them. The challenge for Hulu is not how to build a subscription model, but how to build an authentication model that feeds off of its cable license fees. Authentication is really all about convergence for the consumer, "what you want, where you want, when you want, how you want" - one price for access across all devices.

The added wrinkle is that the relationship between the cable company and its customer base is a poor one - built on poor service, bad communication, mistrust, and bad feelings. As technological advances hit the masses, from Apple to X Box, cable technology, and the box that enables TVs to function, look and act like old fashion, rotary dial, phones. There is nothing 21st century, with cool looks and interfaces, and ergonomic design to make the consumer feel that they are getting the best product from cable. Rather, they feel overcharged, and under appreciated. Hence as competition enters the fray, the customer makes a quick exit to the door.

So online content may try to find a subscription model. Just don't expect the consumer to roll over and take it. We have been mistreated for too long and will find other alternatives to satisfy our video cravings.

Fios To Exceed Cablevision Subscribers by 2010

In just a few short years, Verizon's rise in cable subscription has been fast and furious. While growth has slowed in the last quarter, Fios is the 6th largest cable operator, set to overtake Cablevision and the number 5 spot in 2010. And with partnerships with Direct TV in markets that don't have Fios, Verizon is still able to offer a triple play option to compete with cable. What makes Verizon most dangerous to cable in this competitive environment is that they can offer a fourth play, wireless communication, and build a compelling, competitive offer.

Sure Verizon has had to deal with the loss of customers from wireline, but that is mainly due to technological changes; consumers are switching off wires for cellular. To me that means that this third leg for cable is not the real hook that consumers need. Rather, cable must find a wireless product and build out a wireless broadband model. Consumers no longer want to be tethered to their home or to their devices. Devices must follow them.

As Fios' growth exceeds Cablevision, what does that mean for them? Does it push Cablevision to finally sell itself to Time Warner in order for it to better compete in the region? Verizon is reaching scale and no longer needs to sit at the kid's table; they are a major player in the cable distribution industry and will continue to demonstrate a strong voice in the months to come.

My hint to Fios. Buy some independent cable networks and create a stronger programming arm.